![]() ![]() This is a period when spouses encourage some behaviors of their partners and discourage others at the same time, they try to adapt to those behaviors and characteristics of their partners that cannot be easily changed. Classical psychological literature and public discourse consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a “seven-year itch.” Most married couples experience a gradual but steady decline in marital quality after the first year of marriage, suggesting that the short honeymoon period of passion is followed by everyday routine, during which the differences between spouses’ attitudes, values, and behavior become visible and subject to discussion and arguing. The reason for the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk over the marriage duration, however, has not been discussed much in demographic and sociological studies. Various studies on industrialized countries have found this pattern (Andersson 1995 Diekmann and Engelhardt 1999 Hoem and Hoem 1992 Jalovaara 2013 Kiernan 1999 Kulu and Boyle 2010 Lyngstad 2011 Rootalu 2010 Schoen 1975 Thornton and Rodgers 1987). Most studies show that the risk of separation is low during the first months of a marriage it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decrease. An ingredient of longitudinal models on divorce is the marriage duration. The inclusion of unobserved heterogeneity in the model leads to some changes in the shape of the baseline risk however, the rising-falling pattern of the divorce risk persists.ĭivorce, Marriage, Multilevel hazard models, Finland IntroductionĪn extensive amount of multidisciplinary literature exists on the trends and patterns of divorce and separation in industrialized countries (for recent reviews, see Amato 2010 Cherlin 2010 Lyngstad and Jalovaara 2010). This pattern persists when I control for the sociodemographic characteristics of women and their partners. ![]() Using register data from Finland and applying multilevel hazard models, the analysis supports the rising-falling pattern of divorce by marriage duration: the risk of marital dissolution increases, reaches its peak, and then gradually declines. The aim of this study is to investigate the causes of the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk. Some researchers consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a “seven-year itch,” while others argue that the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk is a consequence of misspecification of longitudinal models because of omitted covariates or unobserved heterogeneity. Previous studies have shown that the risk of divorce is low during the first months of marriage it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decline. ![]()
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